Asia Trader and Investor Convention (ATIC), HCMC, Vietnam

Have not updated blog for some time as I was preparing my presentation for Vietnam.

Yes I will be in Vietnam to speak at NextVIEW's Asia Trader and Investor Convention (ATIC) in Ho Chi Minh City. For more info on ATIC, visit www.theatic.net.

Updating this blog on my PDA, on KLIA Express.

Ciao...

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Blog Hero Goes to War!

Malaysia Today blogger Raja Petra Kamarudin, Champion of Malaysian bloggers was being charged in court for sedition today and is now in Sungai Buloh prison because he refused bail. Money for the bail has been raised by Malaysia Today through his website and their latest update on the receipt was US$3,283.61 and RM24,500.00. They have stopped receiving donations after 5.30pm as it was more than enough to post the bail and the rest will go to charity of Raja Petra's choice.

The refusal to post bail clearly shows that our blog hero Raja Petra Kamarudin (fondly known as RPK or Pete) is ready to battle with the Malaysian authorities which I think not only concerning the Altantuya case, but to challenge the authorities on the freedom of speech and expressing oneself in the cyberspace.

The arrest of RPK has even caused a ruckus in Parliament today when DAP stalwart raised the matter in his speech debating on the royal address. Even MPs and prominent lawyers are supporting RPK in this fight.

This event will definitely be . Indeed,,it will be an interesting episode for bloggers and the Freedom of Speech, and I bet that many (and I mean MANY) are willing to support him in this battle. Head on RPK! You'll never walk alone.

LET'S NOT BE GAGGED BY THE GOVERNMENT!

Jail and harassment from the police will not stop RPK from being gagged. It is his right to speak his mind, It is our right to speak our minds. No holds barred!

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STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS : A CASE STUDY

I have wrote an article about this stock about 4 months ago (8 January 2008) when price was about RM 7.00. Click here for the report. It was based on a "buy"initiation report by TA Securities. Tradinglobby did not agree with this recommendation because on the chart, it is just too overbought. Tradinglobby wrote that the lower risk entry price was about RM5.40. Since then, the price headed south and went to a low of RM4.30 (38% fall from the day I wrote that article). Today, the price stands at RM5.25 (As at noon 6 May 2008).

Bstead has been in the news, especially from the brokers' reports. There is this saying "Sell on News", and we have news now on Boustead. Hey, Don't get me wrong. I am not recommending to sell here, but I am just using this as a real live case study to prove this saying, and this case study may prove otherwise. Let's just see.

Below are the reports (news) from brokers:

Boustead Holdings Berhad (BStead)

8 Jan 2008 - Initial Buy by TA Securities (Tradinglobby comments here). Price was RM7.00
27 Feb 2008 -Update Buy by TA Securities. Price was RM 5.25
3 Mar 2008 - Maintain Buy by TA Securities. Price was RM 5.20
21 Apr 2008 - Initial Buy by Standard and Poors. Price was RM 5.50
30 Apr 2008 - Maintain Buy by Standard and Poors. Price was RM5.35
2 May 2008 -Update Buy by TA Securities. Price was RM 5.30
5 May 2008 - Maintain Buy by Standard and Poors. Price was RM5.30

Average price from TA Securities (Assuming have the same position size on each buy) is RM5.69 while the average price from Standard and Poors is RM5.38.

Now that the price is about RM5.25, are they trying to push the prices up?


Daily BSTEAD chart as at 6 May 2008 noon. Chart courtesy of NextVIEW.

BOUSTEAD HEAVY INDUSTRIES CORPORATION BHD (BHIC)

28 Dec 2007 - Initial Buy by TA Securities. Price was RM 7.40
13 Feb 2008 -Update Buy by TA Securities. Price was RM 6.70
28 Feb 2008 -Update Buy by TA Securities. Price was RM 5.95
29 Feb 2008 -Update Buy by Standard and Poors. Price was RM 5.85
6 May 2008 -Update Buy by TA Securities. Price was RM 4.86 (noon)

Average price from TA Securities (Assuming have the same position size on each buy) is RM6.23. Price of BHIC today (noon) is RM4.86.


Daily BHIC chart as at 6 May 2008 noon. Chart courtesy of NextVIEW.

So, there are the news.... Chartwise, both counters prices are currently in a down trend correction and technically, the potential downside is more than the potential upside.


Tradinglobby will update this case study from time to time.

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Regional Stock Market Indices Commentaries Update - 2 May 2008

Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI): Still expected to be range bound

The KLCI was in a slight bullish mode last month but still remains in the sideway range of between 1,150 and 1,300 points. The KLCI closed at 1271.48 points on the 2nd of May after testing the resistance level with a high of 1,305.09 points last month. The KLCI actually pulled-back from the resistance level to the support level of the short term up trend on Friday.

The short term trend is up, but the underlying trend is still down and for the KLCI to change its underlying trend, it has to break and stay above the 1,300 points resistance level. The momentum is still currently holding up, with the RSI indicator showing a bullish convergence on the daily chart. However, the resistance may be strong as there are no catalysts in the local scene to boost the market further. Therefore, the KLCI is expected to continue to be range bound between the support and resistance levels of 1,150 and 1,300 points respectively. If the KLCI breaks and stay above the resistance level, the next resistance level is at 1,340 points.

Singapore FTSE Straits Times Index (FTSTI): Need to be cautious

The FTSTI ended slight on a bullish mode last week. Technically, it was expected to test the 3,300 points resistance level but manages to reach a high of 3236.10, which was the close on the 2nd of May. Although we are currently seeing an upward rally on the FTSTI in the short term, the underlying trend is still down and there is only a change of it reversing its trend if it breaks the resistance level.

However, the momentum of the up trend, which was strong in the past few weeks have started to show a sign of weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is showing a bearish divergence on the daily chart. The same indication is happening on the MACD indicator. Therefore, we need to be cautious as the FTSTI may now be in a resistance zone with 3,300 points as the resistance level and a downward correction is expected to the next support level. The immediate support level is at 3,100 points.

Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI): Expected to test next resistance

The HSI got out of its sideway consolidation period when it broke the 25,000 points resistance level a few weeks ago and stays above it. The HSI is now at 26,241.02 (as at 2 May 2008). The HSI has retraced 50% from the downward correction that started in November 2007 to the low in mid-March 2008. We are now seeing a reversal in the down trend. Can the reversal turn into an up trend rally?

The short term momentum is still strong and this is indicated on the RSI indicator which shows a bullish convergence. With the current momentum, the HSI is expected to test the next resistance level of 27,500 points and if it is able to go above this resistance level and stay above it, we may see an up trend developing in the long term. The 27,500 points level is the maximum level for the down trend correction. Support is now at 25,000 points.

US Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Expected to test next resistance level at 13,200 points.

Sentiments have improved since the Bear Sterns episode and the intervention of the central bank and this sent the DJI to break above the resistance level at 12,800 points a few weeks ago and stay above it. The DJI closed at 13,057.80 points on the 2nd of May. It is now facing a maximum resistance level that defines the underlying down trend at 13,200 points and the DJI is out of the down trend if it breaks and stays above this level.

The momentum of the current short term up trend is strong and therefore the DJI is likely going to test the 13,200 points resistance level. Furthermore, the confirmed inverted head and shoulder pattern formed on the DJI chart since earlier this year has a price target of 13,600 points. Support level is now at the previous resistance level, which is 12,800 points.

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