I wish you all a very blessed Christmas and may the year 2008 brings you good health and wealth in your investment portfolio.
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Monday, December 24, 2007
Regional Stock Market Indices Update - 24 December 2007
Kuala Lumpur: Technical Rebound
After closing for a day on the 20th for Eid Ul Adha celebration for the Muslims, the KLCI made a strong rebound upwards on Friday the 21st. The KLCI closed 16 points higher or 1.15% to close at 1,403.56 points, almost the same level as the previous corresponding day of the week. Although I have expected the KLCI to test the 1,370 points support level, the KLCI found some support at 1,380 points level, which was the 60 day moving average level.
The rebound has formed a Japanese Candlestick bullish reversal pattern called “The Upstart” and therefore price is expected to climb higher if the KLCI exceeds the confirmation level of 1405 points. However, because of the bearish divergence on the RSI indicator between the 2 pivot highs points on 7th of December (The historical high) and 1st of November, the KLCI may find strong resistance going historical of 1450 points.
Singapore: STI is expected to increase higher
The STI did rebound strongly at the 3,300 points support level as expected last Wednesday and closed at 3398.10 on Friday. The STI still closed lower on a week to week basis. The short to long term moving averages are suggesting that the trend is down. However, the bullish divergence on the RSI indicator between the 2 pivot low points on the 18th of December and 22nd of November indicates a bullish momentum. Therefore, the STI, like Hong Kong’s HSI is expected to increase higher and may find resistance at 3,650 points level in these few remaining days in the year 2007. The STI needs to break above this resistance level to change its current down trend.
Hong Kong: The HSI is expected to increase higher
The HSI found a support level slightly higher than I have anticipated. The HSI found support at 26,000 points level on Tuesday and rallied upwards for the rest of the days in that week and closed at 27,626.96 on Friday, a level almost the same as the previous corresponding day of the week. The short term trend, defined by the 30-day moving averages is still down and is currently at 27,885 points. Like Singapore’s STI, the HSI is expected increase higher and test and exceed this level for the rest of these few remaining days in the year 2007 to change its current trend as the momentum is bullish. The increasing RSI indicates a good bullish convergence. However, the HSI may find resistance at the pivot high level of 30,000 points.
US: DJI is set to test the resistance level at 13,800 points
The US market responded to the bullish markets in the Asian region and the DJI climbed 205 points or 1.55% to close at 13,450.65 points on Friday with reports of higher retail sales because of Christmas and year-end aggressive sales promotions. This moved overcame the bearish mood set earlier that week. The support came in on the 18th of December when the DJI rebounded at the 13,090 points level, close to the anticipated 13,000 points support level. With a good upward move supported by a good momentum (as indicated with a bullish convergence on the RSI indicator) the DJI is set to test the resistance level at 13,800 points.
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After closing for a day on the 20th for Eid Ul Adha celebration for the Muslims, the KLCI made a strong rebound upwards on Friday the 21st. The KLCI closed 16 points higher or 1.15% to close at 1,403.56 points, almost the same level as the previous corresponding day of the week. Although I have expected the KLCI to test the 1,370 points support level, the KLCI found some support at 1,380 points level, which was the 60 day moving average level.
The rebound has formed a Japanese Candlestick bullish reversal pattern called “The Upstart” and therefore price is expected to climb higher if the KLCI exceeds the confirmation level of 1405 points. However, because of the bearish divergence on the RSI indicator between the 2 pivot highs points on 7th of December (The historical high) and 1st of November, the KLCI may find strong resistance going historical of 1450 points.
Singapore: STI is expected to increase higher
The STI did rebound strongly at the 3,300 points support level as expected last Wednesday and closed at 3398.10 on Friday. The STI still closed lower on a week to week basis. The short to long term moving averages are suggesting that the trend is down. However, the bullish divergence on the RSI indicator between the 2 pivot low points on the 18th of December and 22nd of November indicates a bullish momentum. Therefore, the STI, like Hong Kong’s HSI is expected to increase higher and may find resistance at 3,650 points level in these few remaining days in the year 2007. The STI needs to break above this resistance level to change its current down trend.
Hong Kong: The HSI is expected to increase higher
The HSI found a support level slightly higher than I have anticipated. The HSI found support at 26,000 points level on Tuesday and rallied upwards for the rest of the days in that week and closed at 27,626.96 on Friday, a level almost the same as the previous corresponding day of the week. The short term trend, defined by the 30-day moving averages is still down and is currently at 27,885 points. Like Singapore’s STI, the HSI is expected increase higher and test and exceed this level for the rest of these few remaining days in the year 2007 to change its current trend as the momentum is bullish. The increasing RSI indicates a good bullish convergence. However, the HSI may find resistance at the pivot high level of 30,000 points.
US: DJI is set to test the resistance level at 13,800 points
The US market responded to the bullish markets in the Asian region and the DJI climbed 205 points or 1.55% to close at 13,450.65 points on Friday with reports of higher retail sales because of Christmas and year-end aggressive sales promotions. This moved overcame the bearish mood set earlier that week. The support came in on the 18th of December when the DJI rebounded at the 13,090 points level, close to the anticipated 13,000 points support level. With a good upward move supported by a good momentum (as indicated with a bullish convergence on the RSI indicator) the DJI is set to test the resistance level at 13,800 points.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Regional Stock Market Indices Update - 14 December 2007
Kuala Lumpur: Room for downside
The KLCI pulled back last week as expected to a low of 1396.45 on Friday and closed at 1403.41. The low was exactly on the 30-day average. This shows that the 1,400 points support level is being tested. While the KLCI trend is still up, there is still room for KLCI to have a little more correction downwards because there are no signs of weakening downward momentum in the short term. The KLCI is expected to test the 1400 points level again and is it does not hold, it is expected to test the next up trend support level at 1,370 points. This is the support level where investors may want to find short term trading setups. Resistance level remains at 1,450.
Singapore: Support at 3,300
The mid to long term 60 and 90 day moving averages are staying firm sideways while the short term trend is down. This shows that the STI is currently in a long term correction. The up trend may resume once the short term down trend is over and the support level of 3,300 points plays a crucial role. If the STI is supported at this level, we may see the STI rebound upwards and change the down trend. The STI needs to break above 3,650 points to get out of the long term correction. The STI closed at 3466.38 after a low of 3424.34 on Friday. With no indications of weakening momentum in the down trend, the STI is expected to correct further downwards and find some support at 3,300 points level. Resistance level is at 3,650 points.
Hong Kong: HSI set to test 25,860 points support level
The short term down trend was confirmed last week and the HSI fell about 1,300 points in one week to close at 27,563.64 points last Friday. The HSI is all set to test the next support level and even has a high chance of going lower than this support level, which is currently at 25,860 points. The short term momentum is now supporting the short term down trend. The correction downwards is only a short term correction. If the support level cannot hold, a bigger and longer term correction is expected and I will only talk about it when the time comes. In the mean time, expect a little more room on the downside for this week as the HSI is set to test the 25860 points support level.
US: Weak sentiments
An expected pullback happened last week and the DJI was unable to change the short term 30 day moving average down trend. The average is again declining as the DJI fell about 300 points on a week to week basis last week to close at 13,339.85 points. The long term trend still remains in a correction as the longer term moving averages are firm sideways. Weak market sentiments and holiday mood relaxes activities at Wall Street and the situation is expected to continue till the end of the year. With a weak momentum, the DJI is expected to find support at 13,000 points level.
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The KLCI pulled back last week as expected to a low of 1396.45 on Friday and closed at 1403.41. The low was exactly on the 30-day average. This shows that the 1,400 points support level is being tested. While the KLCI trend is still up, there is still room for KLCI to have a little more correction downwards because there are no signs of weakening downward momentum in the short term. The KLCI is expected to test the 1400 points level again and is it does not hold, it is expected to test the next up trend support level at 1,370 points. This is the support level where investors may want to find short term trading setups. Resistance level remains at 1,450.
Singapore: Support at 3,300
The mid to long term 60 and 90 day moving averages are staying firm sideways while the short term trend is down. This shows that the STI is currently in a long term correction. The up trend may resume once the short term down trend is over and the support level of 3,300 points plays a crucial role. If the STI is supported at this level, we may see the STI rebound upwards and change the down trend. The STI needs to break above 3,650 points to get out of the long term correction. The STI closed at 3466.38 after a low of 3424.34 on Friday. With no indications of weakening momentum in the down trend, the STI is expected to correct further downwards and find some support at 3,300 points level. Resistance level is at 3,650 points.
Hong Kong: HSI set to test 25,860 points support level
The short term down trend was confirmed last week and the HSI fell about 1,300 points in one week to close at 27,563.64 points last Friday. The HSI is all set to test the next support level and even has a high chance of going lower than this support level, which is currently at 25,860 points. The short term momentum is now supporting the short term down trend. The correction downwards is only a short term correction. If the support level cannot hold, a bigger and longer term correction is expected and I will only talk about it when the time comes. In the mean time, expect a little more room on the downside for this week as the HSI is set to test the 25860 points support level.
US: Weak sentiments
An expected pullback happened last week and the DJI was unable to change the short term 30 day moving average down trend. The average is again declining as the DJI fell about 300 points on a week to week basis last week to close at 13,339.85 points. The long term trend still remains in a correction as the longer term moving averages are firm sideways. Weak market sentiments and holiday mood relaxes activities at Wall Street and the situation is expected to continue till the end of the year. With a weak momentum, the DJI is expected to find support at 13,000 points level.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Regional Stock Market Indices Update - 10 December 2007
Kuala Lumpur: Pullback expected
The KLCI broke the 1,410 resistance last week and almost tested the next resistance level at 1,450 points on Friday. However, it closed at 1.434.04 points last Friday, a 38 points increase from the previous Friday’s close. Now that the KLCI has drifted higher above the short term 30-day moving average, a pull back is expected at least to the short term average of 1,400 points especially if a bearish reversal pattern formed on Friday called the Engulfing Bear. The 1,450 points level remains as its main resistance while the support level is at 1,400 points level.
Singapore: Strong resistance on STI
In the last 2 days of last week the STI opened high, but failed to maintain its bullishness and closed near the low. This shows that strong resistance were present in that 2 days as traders took every opportunity to sell when prices go higher. The STI closed at 3557.95 points, only up about 35 points from the previous corresponding Friday’s close. The week’s high was 3,621.84. The STI is still somewhere in the middle of the major 3,300 and 3,700 support and resistance level. The upward momentum has slightly improved, but still not strong enough to spur a market rally. Therefore, the STI is expected to remain sideways, with an upward bias.
Bangkok: More uncertainty
The SETI has shown very uncertain moves last week by trading in a 32 points range of between 823.94 and 855.58. It closed at 841.39 last Friday. The SETI is currently in the short to long term 30 to 90 days moving average range and therefore the trend is sideways. The momentum indicators are showing small signs of upward momentum increasing. Support and resistance levels are at 796 and 860 points respectively. While the Thailand market is expected to remain uncertain, the SETI has a little upward bias because of the increasing upward momentum.
Hong Kong: HSI set for short term downward reversal
Friday’s pullback of 716.45 points marred 4 days of upward movement on the HSI. This makes the HSI performance uncertain last week with a trading range of 28,544 and 29,963 points and the HSI closed nearer to the week’s low at 28842.47 points. The HSI is set for a downward reversal this week because of the dismay performance last week although there are signs of slight improvement on the upward momentum. It should test to close the gap on the 29th November to 27,650 points. The major support and resistance level still stands t 25,800 and 30,000 respectively.
US: Pullback expected for DJI
After a weak start last week, the US DJI has made quite a good 2 days rally upwards to close above the short to long term 30 to 90 days average. However, the rally was not extended on Friday. The DJI closed at 13,625.58 last Friday climbing 146.7 points from the previous corresponding Friday’s close. Despite showing stronger upward momentum, a pullback on the short term trend is expected because of an uncertainty sentiment shown on Friday and that the DJI is now at the top band of the Bollinger Bands. The DJI is expected to pullback to at least at the 13,400 points level. Major support and resistance levels are at 13,000 and 14,000 respectively.
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The KLCI broke the 1,410 resistance last week and almost tested the next resistance level at 1,450 points on Friday. However, it closed at 1.434.04 points last Friday, a 38 points increase from the previous Friday’s close. Now that the KLCI has drifted higher above the short term 30-day moving average, a pull back is expected at least to the short term average of 1,400 points especially if a bearish reversal pattern formed on Friday called the Engulfing Bear. The 1,450 points level remains as its main resistance while the support level is at 1,400 points level.
Singapore: Strong resistance on STI
In the last 2 days of last week the STI opened high, but failed to maintain its bullishness and closed near the low. This shows that strong resistance were present in that 2 days as traders took every opportunity to sell when prices go higher. The STI closed at 3557.95 points, only up about 35 points from the previous corresponding Friday’s close. The week’s high was 3,621.84. The STI is still somewhere in the middle of the major 3,300 and 3,700 support and resistance level. The upward momentum has slightly improved, but still not strong enough to spur a market rally. Therefore, the STI is expected to remain sideways, with an upward bias.
Bangkok: More uncertainty
The SETI has shown very uncertain moves last week by trading in a 32 points range of between 823.94 and 855.58. It closed at 841.39 last Friday. The SETI is currently in the short to long term 30 to 90 days moving average range and therefore the trend is sideways. The momentum indicators are showing small signs of upward momentum increasing. Support and resistance levels are at 796 and 860 points respectively. While the Thailand market is expected to remain uncertain, the SETI has a little upward bias because of the increasing upward momentum.
Hong Kong: HSI set for short term downward reversal
Friday’s pullback of 716.45 points marred 4 days of upward movement on the HSI. This makes the HSI performance uncertain last week with a trading range of 28,544 and 29,963 points and the HSI closed nearer to the week’s low at 28842.47 points. The HSI is set for a downward reversal this week because of the dismay performance last week although there are signs of slight improvement on the upward momentum. It should test to close the gap on the 29th November to 27,650 points. The major support and resistance level still stands t 25,800 and 30,000 respectively.
US: Pullback expected for DJI
After a weak start last week, the US DJI has made quite a good 2 days rally upwards to close above the short to long term 30 to 90 days average. However, the rally was not extended on Friday. The DJI closed at 13,625.58 last Friday climbing 146.7 points from the previous corresponding Friday’s close. Despite showing stronger upward momentum, a pullback on the short term trend is expected because of an uncertainty sentiment shown on Friday and that the DJI is now at the top band of the Bollinger Bands. The DJI is expected to pullback to at least at the 13,400 points level. Major support and resistance levels are at 13,000 and 14,000 respectively.
Monday, December 3, 2007
Regional Stock Market Indices Updates - 30 November 2007
Kuala Lumpur: KLCI to stay firm
The market was not bullish when Sime Darby (which is now the largest market capital) was relisted in the exchange last Friday. The KLCI which now includes Sime Darby jumped up about 34 points to open at the high of the day before declining to close at 1396.98. The KLCI have not broken the expected sideway range of 1,340 and 1,410. The RSI indicator has started to go above the 50 level but still not higher than its previous highest high. Most indicators are a little irrelevant at this point of time because of the distortion caused by the re-listing of Sime Darby which is now the heaviest component in the KLCI.
While there are no major improvements in the KLCI, the KLCI is expected to stay firm in the sideway range above. If it breaks above the 1,410 resistance level, then we may see further rally upwards which has a target level of 1,450.
Singapore: STI expected to trade in a range with an upward bias.
The STI made a price reversal up last week and rallied upwards about 200 points from the previous week to close at 3,521.27. However, the STI is still not out of the current down trend. It is now slightly below the long term 90-day moving average. But the direction of the moving average, even the shorter term 30-day moving average is still declining.
There are not many changes on the technical indicators from last week. The STI’s RSI level is now slightly above 50 but it is still too early to say that the bulls are taking over because resistance level is at 3,700 and the bulls will take over the market if the STI breaks above this level. If it does not break the resistance, then it shall maintain sideways with an upward bias because the resistance level is about 180 points higher. The sideway range is between 3,300 and 3,700.
Thailand: SETI expected to be a little uncertain
We have seen a morning star last week, which is a bullish reversal and SETI rallied upwards for about 22 points to close at 846.44 last Friday. This week, we see another Candlestick “Star” pattern, but this time a bearish reversal is expected. The 50% retracement level from the downward correction, which is the currently resistance level is at 860, just 14 points above the current SETI close.
Price trend is still down on the short to long term and therefore, resistance still exist and the SETI has to perform much better to overcome the resistances. SETI is therefore is expected to be a little uncertain in its direction this week with a support and resistance level of 800 to 860 respectively. If the SETI is able to overcome its resistance, then it may test the next resistance level of 860.
Hong Kong: HSI is still in a correction mode
After 4 consecutive weeks of lower closes, the HSI made a strong technical rebound this week with a 2,100 points gain from its previous week to close at 28,643.61.. This means that the HSI has retraced to about 50% from the downward correction. The HSI also broke the 27,100 resistance level. Investors are eager to get the Hong Kong market back on the long term uptrend track because currently, only the short term trend is down.
The support level is now at the recent pivot low at 25,800 and the resistance stands at 30,000. The HSI is still in a correction mode, until at least it goes above the resistance level. If t breaks the support, then more downside is expected and the HSI may test the 200 day average which is around 23,000.
US: DJI expected to remain sluggish
The strong technical rebound on the US market shows that there is still some support. The DJI is now back above the psychological support level of 13,000. The DJI climbed to about 460 points from the previous Friday to close at 13,442.44. The DJI is expected to face challenges especially in the year end where professionals and retail investors are closing their books for a good year to year performance.
The intermediate down trend line is still not broken and therefore the trend is still considered down in the short term but in a major long term correction. The down trend line is currently at 13,600 and support is at the immediate pivot low of 12,700 and the DJI is expected to stay within this range.
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The market was not bullish when Sime Darby (which is now the largest market capital) was relisted in the exchange last Friday. The KLCI which now includes Sime Darby jumped up about 34 points to open at the high of the day before declining to close at 1396.98. The KLCI have not broken the expected sideway range of 1,340 and 1,410. The RSI indicator has started to go above the 50 level but still not higher than its previous highest high. Most indicators are a little irrelevant at this point of time because of the distortion caused by the re-listing of Sime Darby which is now the heaviest component in the KLCI.
While there are no major improvements in the KLCI, the KLCI is expected to stay firm in the sideway range above. If it breaks above the 1,410 resistance level, then we may see further rally upwards which has a target level of 1,450.
Singapore: STI expected to trade in a range with an upward bias.
The STI made a price reversal up last week and rallied upwards about 200 points from the previous week to close at 3,521.27. However, the STI is still not out of the current down trend. It is now slightly below the long term 90-day moving average. But the direction of the moving average, even the shorter term 30-day moving average is still declining.
There are not many changes on the technical indicators from last week. The STI’s RSI level is now slightly above 50 but it is still too early to say that the bulls are taking over because resistance level is at 3,700 and the bulls will take over the market if the STI breaks above this level. If it does not break the resistance, then it shall maintain sideways with an upward bias because the resistance level is about 180 points higher. The sideway range is between 3,300 and 3,700.
Thailand: SETI expected to be a little uncertain
We have seen a morning star last week, which is a bullish reversal and SETI rallied upwards for about 22 points to close at 846.44 last Friday. This week, we see another Candlestick “Star” pattern, but this time a bearish reversal is expected. The 50% retracement level from the downward correction, which is the currently resistance level is at 860, just 14 points above the current SETI close.
Price trend is still down on the short to long term and therefore, resistance still exist and the SETI has to perform much better to overcome the resistances. SETI is therefore is expected to be a little uncertain in its direction this week with a support and resistance level of 800 to 860 respectively. If the SETI is able to overcome its resistance, then it may test the next resistance level of 860.
Hong Kong: HSI is still in a correction mode
After 4 consecutive weeks of lower closes, the HSI made a strong technical rebound this week with a 2,100 points gain from its previous week to close at 28,643.61.. This means that the HSI has retraced to about 50% from the downward correction. The HSI also broke the 27,100 resistance level. Investors are eager to get the Hong Kong market back on the long term uptrend track because currently, only the short term trend is down.
The support level is now at the recent pivot low at 25,800 and the resistance stands at 30,000. The HSI is still in a correction mode, until at least it goes above the resistance level. If t breaks the support, then more downside is expected and the HSI may test the 200 day average which is around 23,000.
US: DJI expected to remain sluggish
The strong technical rebound on the US market shows that there is still some support. The DJI is now back above the psychological support level of 13,000. The DJI climbed to about 460 points from the previous Friday to close at 13,442.44. The DJI is expected to face challenges especially in the year end where professionals and retail investors are closing their books for a good year to year performance.
The intermediate down trend line is still not broken and therefore the trend is still considered down in the short term but in a major long term correction. The down trend line is currently at 13,600 and support is at the immediate pivot low of 12,700 and the DJI is expected to stay within this range.
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